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Bulgaria Banking & Financial Services Report Q4 2017

Bulgaria Banking & Financial Services Report Q4 2017

BMI View:

Growth in Bulgaria's financial system is set to rebound over the coming quarters. In particular,growth in the banking sector is set to return to positive territory in 2017 on the back of a strongmacroeconomic backdrop and returning confidence following the collapse of a lender in 2014.

Loan growth in the Bulgarian banking sector remained negative for two years since the collapse ofBulgaria's fourth largest lender, Corporate Commercial Bank (KTB) in 2014. Following sluggish growth in2016, we now expect the banking sector to return to positive growth on the back of restored confidence inthe banking sector and due to Bulgaria's strong macroeconomic backdrop. We forecast client loan growth toaccelerate to 4.0% and 5.5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively, but we note that the ratio of non-performingloans remains high at over 14.0% in mid-2017. Furthermore, we expect growth in the insurance sector topick up over the coming years on the back of Bulgaria's strong macroeconomic backdrop and risingincomes, which should translate into a rising number of households taking out insurance policies. Bulgaria'sstock market is among the best performing in Europe, surging by over one-fifth in the first seven months of2017, mainly due to favourable valuations and rising risk appetite for emerging markets among investors.


BMI Industry View
Banking & Financial Services Industry View
Table: Financial Services Forecasts (Bulgaria 2015-2020)
Table: Financial Services Forecasts (Bulgaria 2021-2026)
SWOT
Banking & Financial Services
Banking
Banking Snapshot
Forecast Scenario
Table: Key Banking Forecasts (Bulgaria 2015-2021)
Banks Well Place To Ramp Up Credit Supply
Robust Economic Growth Outlook To Support Credit Demand
Table: BULGARIA - Banking Sector Risk Snapshot
Structural Overview Of The Bulgarian Banking Sector
Forecast Tables
Table: Assets Forecasts (Bulgaria 2015-2020)
Table: Assets Forecasts (Bulgaria 2021-2026)
Table: Liabilities Forecasts (Bulgaria 2015-2020)
Table: Liabilities Forecasts (Bulgaria 2021-2026)
Table: Key Ratios Forecasts (Bulgaria 2015-2026)
Competitive Landscape
Table: Top 10 Commercial And Retail Banks By Total Assets, BGNmn
Table: Top 10 Banks - Asset Quality
Table: Top 10 Banks - Earnings & Profitability
Table: Top 10 Banks - Capital & Leverage
Table: Top 10 Banks - Funding & Liquidity
Regulatory Environment
Insurance
Insurance Snapshot
Table: Gross Insurance Premiums Written (Bulgaria 2015-2020)
Table: Gross Insurance Premiums Written (Bulgaria 2021-2026)
Competitive Landscape
Table: Top 10 Life Insurance Companies By Gross Premiums, USDmn
Table: Top 10 Non-Life Insurance Companies By Gross Premiums, USDmn
Regulatory Environment
Asset Management
Asset Management Snapshot
Competitive Landscape
Regulatory Environment
Stock Exchanges
Stock Exchanges Snapshot
Competitive Landscape
Table: SOFIX Composition
Regulatory Environment
Macroeconomic Overview
Economic Analysis
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (Bulgaria 2016-2026)
Household Income Forecasts
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2015-2021)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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