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Brazil Renewables Report Q1 2016

Brazil Renewables Report Q1 2016

BMI View: As the wider economic downturn worsens, we expect growth in non-hydro renewables todecrease below previously forecast levels for 2015 and 2016. Although auctions in H215 showed stableinterest, increasing obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to furtherrevise our already conservative overall estimates. Solar power has, nevertheless, experienced anotherupward revision for our long-run outlook; we now expect the sector to cross the 1GW capacity mark in2017 - instead of 2018, previously. The recently introduced 2024 targets in the newest PDE may act as acrucial driver if further governmental support follows.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

Going into 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growthof 9.1% and 5.7%, respectively, significantly below the expected 2015 levels and previous expectations,as the wider economic downturn worsens.

Based on the latest governmental PDE, solar capacity targets have been increased to 7GW by 2024. Ourexpectations of 3.7GW by 2024 remain significantly below that target. Wind power targets stand at24GW for 2024, with our own forecast estimating about 20GW of installed wind capacity.


BMI Industry View
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, GW, 2014 and 2024
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2019-2024)
Brazil Renewables Projects Database
Table: Brazil - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity, MW
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
Targets
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW
Subsidies
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape
Eletrobrás
Tractebel Energia
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Acciona
Impsa
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators

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