Brazil Renewables Report Q1 2016
BMI View: As the wider economic downturn worsens, we expect growth in non-hydro renewables todecrease below previously forecast levels for 2015 and 2016. Although auctions in H215 showed stableinterest, increasing obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to furtherrevise our already conservative overall estimates. Solar power has, nevertheless, experienced anotherupward revision for our long-run outlook; we now expect the sector to cross the 1GW capacity mark in2017 - instead of 2018, previously. The recently introduced 2024 targets in the newest PDE may act as acrucial driver if further governmental support follows.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Going into 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growthof 9.1% and 5.7%, respectively, significantly below the expected 2015 levels and previous expectations,as the wider economic downturn worsens.
Based on the latest governmental PDE, solar capacity targets have been increased to 7GW by 2024. Ourexpectations of 3.7GW by 2024 remain significantly below that target. Wind power targets stand at24GW for 2024, with our own forecast estimating about 20GW of installed wind capacity.
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