Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term,underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over thenext decade. However, production growth will be limited by declining investment funds and continuedfallout from the corruption scandal. As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our viewthat the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstreamsegments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatoryenvironment.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

On January 12, Brazilian national oil company (NOC) Petrobras announced it had approved furtherreductions to its 2015-2019 Business and Management Plan (BMP), supporting our previously heldview. This revision, revealing the third iteration of the five-year plan, represents a 17.5% decline from theversion released in October of 2015 and a 24.5% reduction from the original version released in June2015. These adjustments underscore the extent to which sustained market weakness has undercut thecompany's ability to execute its long-term plans.

The start up of Petrobras's Cidade de Maric√° floating, production, storage and offloading unit onFebruary 16 is the first of three large-scale developments anticipated to begin in 2016. Located within theLula Field in the presalt later of the deepwater Santos Basin, the project is expected to generate up to150,000 bbl of oil along with 6mn cubic metres (mcm) of associated natural gas per day.

Production growth of natural gas in Brazil will experience an uptick in 2016 but will be unable tomaintain this trend through 2020. With NOC Petrobras under severe pressure to cut costs and operatewithin its existing cashflow, we believe projects included its five-year BMP will be subject to continueddelays, limiting upside in the latter half of the decade.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
Table: Breakdown Of Offshore Reserves
Upstream Projects
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Brazil Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Brazil
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
Company Profile
BP Brasil
Chevron Brasil
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo
Grupo Ultra
Shell Brasil
Statoil do Brasil
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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