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Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long-term,underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will risethroughout our forecast period. In the near-term, we hold a more bearish view, as lower oil prices anddecreased capex funds dampen upstream investment, weakening output growth beyond 2018. As such,despite tremendous below-ground potential, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our viewthat the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstreamsegments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatoryenvironment.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

Significant financial burdens faced by state-owned Petrobras, the dominant player in the sector, will keepthe country from achieving its full production potential as the company struggles to finance thedevelopment of pre-salt resources amid a weakening real, a rising 'Custo Brazil', and lower oil prices.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
SWOT
Oil and Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves
Table: Breakdown of Offshore Reserves
Upstream Projects
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: List Of Upcoming And Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Brazil 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Brazil Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Brazil
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Summary
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector
Company Profile
Petróleo Brasileiro
Shell Brasil
Repsol
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo
Chevron Brasil
Ultrapar Participações (Grupo Ultra)
BG do Brasil
BP Brasil
Statoil do Brasil
Oleo & Gas Participacoes/OGX Brazil
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
Global Industry Overview
Global Industry Overview - 5 Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
Appendix
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
Latin America - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Brazil - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Brazil 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Brazil 2019-2024)
Brazil - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018)
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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