Brazil Insurance Report Q2 2016
BMI View: In spite of a very difficult economic environment, Brazil remains a market that is both large inabsolute terms and, in relation to the forecast period, reasonably quickly growing. We continue to forecastsolid high mid-single digit annual growth in premiums in both of the two main segments. Health insurancewill drive the expansion of the non-life segment. In the life segment, additional sales to existing clients willbe the main catalyst for growth.
Key Updates And Forecasts
The latest results from the leading non-life companies (in relation to 2015) indicate that the slowing ofthe economy has had a limited impact on the segment. We forecast 7.0% growth in premiums in 2016.
The pace of increase should be broadly similar for the remainder of the forecast period. The key driver isthe expansion of health insurance (including the offerings of the composite insurers that are regulated bySUSEP and the specialist health funds that are overseen by the ANS). Health insurance is benefiting fromgrowth in volumes, thanks to first time users, and higher prices, which can be sustained because of thehigh level of inflation. The growth of basic motor vehicle and property lines will continue to beconstrained by price competition.
We forecast growth of 7.1% in life premiums in 2016. The growth rate should decrease slightly over thecourse of the forecast period, but will still be in mid-single digits in 2020. Many of the major life insurershave reported good increases in sales of their main products - VGBL and PGBL savings plans,Capitalização bonds, private pensions and traditional life insurance over the course of 2015. This meansthat the insurers' offerings are considered attractive by those Brazilians who can afford to buy them. Atsome stage, at least some of the life insurers should benefit from sales to large numbers of new users.
However, we expect that this will happen after the end of the forecast period.
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