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Brazil Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Brazil Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Brazil's economic rebound is likely to slow over the coming quarters due to deteriorating consumer and business sentiment following a 10-day truckers' strike. Weaker sentiment will undermine investment and consumption, the drivers' of Brazil's nascent recovery.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic - SWOT Analysis
Political - SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Brazil's Rebound Undermined By Weakening Sentiment
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Brazil's Election Unlikely To Threaten External Stability
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: FINANCIAL ACCOUNT INDICATORS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
External Shock Ends Rate Cutting Cycle
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Reform Prospects Dimming Amid Pushback
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN AREAS OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (2015)
Brazil Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
BRL: Weakening Sentiment Will Push Unit Lower
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Brazilian Economy To 2027
Days Of Easy Growth Are Gone
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Truckers' Strike: Growth To Slow, Election Risks Rise
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Brazil Long-Term Political Outlook
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BRAZIL – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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