Botswana Insurance Report Q3 2018
We anticipate robust growth in total gross premiums of 6.0% in 2018 to BWP5.1bn, while in USD terms growth will be amore modest 2.7% to USD482mn. Growth will be led by the overwhelmingly dominant life insurance segment, which has highdensity and penetration levels, but penetration will decline as insurance lags behind the overall economic trend. The economy itself,led by the mining sector and heavily influenced by commodity prices, will not growth as strongly as previously thought but shouldaverage 5.2% over the next 10 years as global diamond demand and prices gradually recover. This will help support insurancegrowth, although the structure of the economy means the insurance sector will remain vulnerable to commodity prices, particularlyin diamonds. Botswana's consumer base will find support from relatively low inflation and as such we expect private consumption togrow steadily in the years ahead. We forecast real private consumption growth to average 4.8% per year between 2018 and 2027,compared with 7.0% growth over the preceding decade. Stable inflation will support citizen's purchasing power and will see demandrise at a steady pace.
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