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Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q3 2018

We have revised down our short-term political risk score from 40.6 to 39.4 for Bosnia because of the growing threat of a crisis in forming a government after October's vote, a scenario that would effectively paralyse the policy-making process.

The recent unlocking of IMF and other international credit lines should support badly-needed investment in infrastructure and provide a moderate boost to economic growth over the coming two years.

Long-term economic development will still be restricted by the country's dysfunctional political system and unstable business environment.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Steady Growth, But Headwinds Weigh On Development
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Bosnian Economy To 2027
Politics The Main Hurdle To Long-Term Economic Convergence
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Deadlock Increases Risks Of Post-Election Crisis
Long-Term Political Outlook
Ethno-Nationalist Divisions To Undermine Development
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME RISKS
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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