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Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q1 2019

The October elections results suggest little change in Bosnia as ethno-nationalist parties retained power and will continue to resist efforts to develop stronger state-level institutions and implement reforms


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Private Consumption To Support Growth In Bosnia
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
10-Year Forecast
The Bosnian Economy To 2027
Politics The Main Obstacle To Long-Term Economic Convergence
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Bosnia & Herzegovina Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
More Instability In Bosnia After General Election
Long-Term Political Outlook
Ethno-Nationalist Divisions To Undermine Development
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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