Benin Country Risk Report 2017
Benin's economic growth will accelerate over the next two yearsalongside a recovery in the Nigerian economy (with which Benin hasstrong linkages) and on the back of rising public and private sectorinvestment. However, we do not believe that growth will reach levelsaimed for by the government given that the business environmentreforms will not be sufficient to attract the kind of private investmentthat the government's development plan requires.
Opposition from sections of the electorate and from within the nationalassembly to President Patrice Talon's reform programme will forcehim to water down his agenda or at least delay its implementation.As a result, the business environment will not improve as quickly asthe president hopes and this will lead to lower foreign private sectorinvestment and weaker economic growth than he is targeting.
Inflation in Benin will remain low and stable over the next 10 years dueto the country's membership of the Union Economique et MonétaireOuest Africaine currency bloc. The West African franc's peg to theeuro will ensure broad currency stability and will limit import-pricepressures.
Benin's budget deficit will narrow in the years ahead due to continuedimprovement in the government's expenditure and revenue collectionprocesses. Government debt as a share of GDP will gradually riseover the next decade as persistent fiscal deficits drive public sectorfinancing needs.
Benin's current account deficit will narrow over the next 10 years onthe back of increased output from the country's cotton sector andgreater access to regional markets as tariffs in West Africa becomeincreasingly liberalised. Benin's external position will be furtherbuoyed as external debt remains on a sustainable trajectory andcurrency risks remain limited.
Benin's political landscape will remain one of the most stable andopen in West Africa in the years ahead, benefitting from a free pressand strong opposition. Nevertheless, the country faces challengesin the long term, such as a spillover of violence from piracy andterrorist activity in the region.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Index
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Economic Growth To Accelerate But Unlikely To Reach Ambitious Targets
- Benin's economic growth will accelerate over the next two years alongside a recovery in the Nigerian economy (with which Benin has
- strong linkages) and on the back of rising public and private sector investment. However, we do not believe that growth will reach levels
- aimed for by the government given that the business environment reforms will not be sufficient to attract the kind of private investment
- that the government's development plan requires.
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Outlook On External Position
- TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2015
- TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2015
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
- TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2014)
- Long-Term Economic Outlook
- Agricultural Sector To Keep Growth Steady
- Benin's real GDP growth will gradually head higher over the next 10 years, driven primarily by the agricultural sector. That said, the
- economy will grow at a slower pace compared to the West African Economic and Monetary Union average, as limited economic
- diversification hinders the development of higher value-added industries.
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Chapter 2: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Index
- Domestic Politics
- Opposition To Reforms Will Force Moderation Of President's Agenda
- Opposition from sections of the electorate and from within the national assembly to President Patrice Talon's reform programme will
- force him to water down his agenda or at least delay its implementation. As a result, the business environment will not improve as
- quickly as the president hopes, and this will lead to lower foreign private sector investment and weaker economic growth than he is
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Benin Will Remain A Regional Standard-Bearer
- Benin's political landscape will remain one of the most stable and open in West Africa in the years ahead, benefitting from a free press
- and strong opposition. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and
- terrorist activity in the region.
- Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
- Demographic Outlook
- TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
- TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
- TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
- TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
- TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
- Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
- Global Growth Solidifying, But 'Reflation' To Moderate
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: BENIN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS