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Belize Country Risk Report 2017

Belize Country Risk Report 2017

Core Views

Belize will post slower growth rates over the next decade than over theprevious 20 years, underpinned by our expectation that productivitygains will remain limited. Furthermore, the government will be unableto pursue much-needed reforms in infrastructure and education dueto a lack of available funding, further dampening Belize's long-termgrowth prospects.

The government will face substantial opposition to fiscal consolidationefforts, which will undermine its ability to develop an effectivepolicy response to its precarious fiscal sustainability.

Despite a debt restructuring in 2017, Belize will remain a substantialdefault risk due to weak revenues and its difficulty in enactingspending cuts.

Belize is likely to struggle to finance its current account shortfall overthe coming years as foreign capital inflows weaken.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Modest Recovery Weighed Down By Consolidation
Belize's economy will pick up steam over the coming quarters, as agricultural production continues to recover and the tourism sector
generates tailwinds. However, fiscal consolidation in light of an elevated debt load will limit growth over the coming years.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Despite Consolidation, Default Risk Remains High
Belize will remain at a high risk of default in the years ahead, despite the implementation of a fiscal consolidation programme. Persistent
fiscal and current account deficits, weak growth and a substantial debt burden will challenge the government's ability to meet its
obligations.
Structural Fiscal Position
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Little Cause For Optimism
Economic growth in Belize will remain subdued and the country will continue to run current account and fiscal deficits over the course
of the next 10 years. The government will be unable to pursue structural reforms due to a lack of available funding, which will weigh on
Belize's long-term growth prospects.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Weak Public Support Will Undermine Consolidation Efforts
The Belizean government will struggle to develop an effective response to its wide fiscal deficits and elevated debt load due to political
opposition to fiscal consolidation efforts. Corruption allegations and persistent tensions with Guatemala will further weaken the political
environment and hinder investment.
Long-Term Political Outlook
Corruption And Violent Crime To Remain Atop The Agenda
Belize will continue along its present political trajectory over the next 10 years, with the government remaining unable to effectively
tackle corruption, and violent crime posing an ongoing threat to citizens. Nevertheless, Belizean society will remain stable, and future
transitions of power will occur within the country's constitutional framework.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Contents
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
Demographic Outlook
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION AND LIFE EXPECTANCY
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
DM Growth Peaking, But EMs Have Room To Run
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: BELIZE – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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