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Belgium Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Belgium Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Opinion polls showing declining support for the far-left Parti du Travail de Belgique do not mean that the environment for coalition formation is improving ahead of 2019 parliamentary elections. Opinion poll leaders Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie are taking an increasingly hard-line stance against immigration, which will leave the party struggling to find willing coalition partners.

The Belgian economy will expand more slowly in 2018 than we previously anticipated. Exports, which drove growth in the first quarter of the year, will be nega-tively impacted by softer eurozone demand, while domestic demand will be constrained by waning consumer and business confidence.

Key Risks

The risk of additional terror attacks and the rise of eurosceptic, nationalist movements across Europe leaves Belgian politics vulnerable to renewed fragmenta-tion and potential gains for far-right parties in the 2019 election.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic - SWOT Analysis
Political - SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Belgian Economic Growth To Slow More Than Previously Expected In 2018
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Tightening Risks European Taper Tantrum
Currency Forecast
EUR: Strength Unlikely Despite Tighter Monetary Policy
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Belgium Economy To 2027
Tepid Outlook Compared To Eurozone Peers
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Belgium Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Declining Support For Belgium Far-Left Does Not Suggest Improved Consensus-Building Environment
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Heightened Risks To Future Political Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BELGIUM – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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