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Belgium Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Belgium Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Belgium's political environment will be increasingly polarised over the coming months as parties position themselves for upcoming elections, leading to policy stasis After the vote, the policymaking environment is unlikely to improve rapidly as we believe that creation of workable coalition will once again take months of protracted negotiations

Belgium's economy is in the midst of a slowdown that we have long expected, owing largely to weakening external demand We expect growth in the eurozone (which accounts for the bulk of Belgian exports) to slow and this will continue to weigh on the external sector Government spending will remain tepid amid a high public debt load and likely policy stasis in the lead up to and after the 2019 elections Private sector demand will be constrained by tightening monetary policy, slowing eurozone growth and rising inflation

Key Risks

The risk of additional terror attacks and the rise of eurosceptic, nationalist movements across Europe leaves Belgian politics vulnerable to renewed fragmenta-tion and potential gains for far-right parties in the 2019 election Belgium Country Risk Q1 2019


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Belgian Real GDP Growth Slowdown To Continue
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Has Few Options But To Gradually Tighten
Currency Forecast
EUR: Gradual Appreciation Amid End Of QE
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Belgian Economy To 2027
Tepid Outlook Compared To Eurozone Peers
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Belgium Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Belgian Policymaking Environment Will Remain Challenging For Several Quarters
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Foreign Policy
The Gradual Emergence Of A 'Two-Tier' EU
Long-Term Political Outlook
Separatism And Terrorism To Remain Key Issues
Global Macro Outlook
Contagion Risks Limited To EMs For Now
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BELGIUM – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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