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Belgium Country Risk Report 20 2018

Belgium Country Risk Report 20 2018

Having stepped back from the brink of collapse, Belgium's coalition government will likely survive at least until the October 2018 local elections. That said, the country's political environment will become increasingly polarised over the coming quarters, making coalition formation after the next election a particularly challenging prospect.

Belgian economic growth will slow in 2018 and 2019, in line with weaker eurozone GDP growth and slowing reform momentum.

However, the economy is by no means headed for a hard landing and growth will remain well above the post-financial crisis average.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Slow But No Hard Landing
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Normalisation Finally Nearing
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Belgium Economy To 2027
Tepid Outlook Compared To Eurozone Peers
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Coalition To Survive But Polarisation To Increase
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Unity To Prevail
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: BELGIUM – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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