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Belarus Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Belarus Country Risk Report Q3 2018

The Belarusian economy will continue to recover following two years of recession, primarily as robust domestic demand and recovering energy prices drive growth.

Robust private consumption will be a significant driver of growth over the coming years.

Recovering energy prices will provide a significant boost to gross fixed capital formation. We have made a significant upwards revision to our 2018 and 2019 price forecast for Brent crude oil.

Our Oil & Gas team has revised up our price forecast for Brent to USD73.0/bbl and USD77.0/bbl for 2018 and 2019 respectively, in response to stronger-than-anticipated price gains in the year to date.

That said, following relatively solid growth in 2018, we expect eco-nomic activity in Belarus to gradually slow from 2019 onwards. This primarily reflects an overreliance on the Russian economy and a lack of progress on structural reforms.

A lack of structural reforms and weak productivity growth will drag on growth potential. Specifically, the significant footprint that the Belarusian government retains in the economy – primarily through state-owned enterprises – is unlikely to be reduced, weighing on capital expenditure.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Recovery Set To Continue
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Belarusian Economy To 2027
Long-Term Growth Prospects Remain Subdued
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Armenia Uprising Could Be A Warning For Minsk
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Lukashenko And Russia To Determine State Evolution
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO RISK IN BELARUS
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: BELARUS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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