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Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q4 2018

We have downwardly revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2018 to 0.7%, from 1.0% previously, reflecting a slowing tourism sector and constrained domestic demand due to public spending cuts. We expect growth will pick up broadly over the coming quarters, driven by the tourism sector.

Tax increases will help pick up the pace of fiscal consolidation over the coming quarters. Prime Minister Mia Mottley has made fiscal consolidation and the renegotiation of the country's debt a top priority upon taking office.

Debt renegotiations will likely lower the state's obligations, while a financing agreement from the IMF is likely to entail expenditure cuts and state-owned enter-prise reform over the coming quarters.

A faster pace of fiscal adjustment, debt reduction and SOE reform offers upside to the medium-term outlook, although spending cuts will also likely lead to public opposition.


Brief Methodology
Barbados – Executive Summary
Core Views
Barbados – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
New Government Set To Pursue Additional Consolidation
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Barbados To Restrain Expenditures Amid Debt Renegotiation
10-Year Forecast
The Barbadian Economy To 2027
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
BLP Victory Unlikely To Produce Major Policy Shift
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Stability And Drug Trafficking Greatest Challenges To Political Stability
ContentsGuyana – Executive Summary
Core Views
Guyana – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Guyana Oil Discovery Boosts Long-Term Outlook
10-Year Forecast
The Guyanese Economy To 2027
Outlook Brightening
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Guyana's Political Landscape Will Be Cloudier Before 2019 Election
Long-Term Political Outlook
Sectarian Tensions And Regional Disputes Pose Risk To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BARBADOS AND GUYANA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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