Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q2 2020


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q2 2020

In 2020, real economic activity will return to growth as tourism remains solid and foreign investment solidifies due to declining uncertainty.Financing assistance from the IMF will support Barbados' efforts to cut government expenditures and reduce public debt, which will support the long-termgrowth outlook. We expect Barbados will achieve a budget surplus in FY2019/20 as revenues rebound on the strength of expanding economic activity.Barbados will run wide current account deficits over the coming years as machinery and food imports outweigh service exports, principally from tourism. However,we expect stable FDI inflows and support from multilateral lenders to provide stability to support Barbados' external account.The successful implementation of Barbados' IMF programme will reinforce Prime Minister Mia Mottley's administration.Mottley's popularity, as well as the Barbados Labour Party's supermajority in the House of Assembly, will allow the Prime Minister to pursue more long-term goalsin both environmental and foreign policy.


Brief Methodology
Indices –
Brief Methodology
Barbados – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Barbados – Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Barbados
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Modest Rebound In Barbados After Recession In 2019
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Barbados Will Run Wider Surpluses As Expenditures Contract
10-Year Forecast
The Barbadian Economy To 2029
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
IMF Programme Success To Reinforce Barbados PM Mottley
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Stability And Drug Trafficking Greatest Challenges To Political Stability
Barbados & Guyana Country Risk Q2 2020ContentsTHIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Guyana – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Guyana – Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Guyana
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Oil Boom Will Drive Guyana To Record Growth Levels In Coming Quarters
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Offshore Oil Production Will Drive A Surge In Government Revenues In Guyana
10-Year Forecast
The Guyanese Economy To 2029
Outlook Brightening
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
APNU Will Hold Slight Edge In The Run-Up To Guyana's General Election
Long-Term Political Outlook
Sectarian Tensions And Regional Disputes Pose Risk To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: BARBADOS AND GUYANA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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