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Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

We have downwardly revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0.3% from 1.8% previously, due to anticipated public spending cuts. The tourism sector will remain a primary engine of growth and draw of foreign investment.

Financing assistance from the IMF will support Barbados' efforts to cut government expenditures and reduce public debt, which will support the long-term growth outlook. However, fiscal austerity will reduce growth over the coming quarters by undermining consumption.

Prime Minister Mia Mottley's Barbados Labour Party government will continue to pursue fiscal consolidation over the coming quarters, although public sector layoffs will undermine public support for the administration and could undermine social stability. The opposition Democratic Labour Party will likely leverage discontent with layoffs to rebuild its political support and potentially organise more sustained opposition to the governmentfitchsolutions.com


Brief Methodology
Indices –
Brief Methodology
Barbados – Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Barbados
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Barbados
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Barbados' Fiscal Consolidation To Weigh On Growth
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Debt Restructuring Remains A Challenge In Barbados
10-Year Forecast
The Barbadian Economy To 2028
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Public Sector Layoffs Will Undermine Support For Barbados Government
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Stability And Drug Trafficking Greatest Challenges To Political Stability
Barbados & Guyana Country Risk Q2 2019ContentsTHIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Guyana – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Country Risk Summary
Guyana
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Guyana
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Primary Sectors And Public Spending Will Aid Growth In Guyana
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Guyanese Fiscal Deficits Will Remain Wide Amid Political Uncertainty
10-Year Forecast
The Guyanese Economy To 2028
Outlook Brightening
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
No Confidence Vote Likely To Trigger Early Election In Guyana
Long-Term Political Outlook
Sectarian Tensions And Regional Disputes Pose Risk To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: BARBADOS AND GUYANA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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