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Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q1 2020

We forecast Barbados's real GDP to grow by 0.3% in 2019, with the tourism sector remaining a primary engine of growth and a draw for foreign investment.


Brief Methodology
Indices – Brief Methodology
Barbados – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Foreast Changes
Key Risks
Barbados – Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Barbados
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Growth In Services Exports To Narrow Barbados's Current Account Deficit
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Consolidation To Continue Restraining Growth In Barbados
10-Year Forecast
The Barbadian Economy To 2028
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Rebounding Economic Activity In Barbados To Strengthen IMF Programme Implementation
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Stability And Drug Trafficking Greatest Challenges To Political Stability
Barbados & Guyana Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsTHIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Guyana – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Guyana – Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Guyana
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Crude Oil Production, Investment Will Drive Robust Growth In Guyana
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Capital Inflows Will Support Guyana's External Account Stability
10-Year Forecast
The Guyanese Economy To 2028
Outlook Brightening
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Political Uncertainty In Guyana Will Remain Elevated Throughout 2020 Election
Long-Term Political Outlook
Sectarian Tensions And Regional Disputes Pose Risk To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BARBADOS AND GUYANA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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