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Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Barbados and Guyana Country Risk Report Q1 2019

We have downwardly revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0 8%, from 1 4% previously, due to anticipated public spending cuts The tourism sector will remain a primary engine of growth and draw off of foreign investment

Financing assistance from the IMF will support Barbados' efforts to cut government expenditures and reduce public debt, which will support the long-term growth outlook However, fiscal austerity will reduce growth over the coming quarters by undermining consumption

Public spending cuts will likely significantly weaken public support for Mottley's government, particularly as the administration moves to reduce public sector wage expenses


Brief Methodology
Barbados – Executive Summary
Core Views
Barbados – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Barbados' IMF Programme Supports Long-Term Outlook
10-Year Forecast
The Barbadian Economy To 2027
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Barbados' Debt Restructuring Poses Risks To Investment
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Stability And Drug Trafficking Greatest Challenges To Political Stability
Barbados & Guyana Country Risk Q1 2019ContentsGuyana – Executive Summary
Core Views
Guyana – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Government Spending To Support Guyanese Growth Before 2020
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Guyana Unlikely To Cut Government Spending Before 2020 Oil Windfall
10-Year Forecast
The Guyanese Economy To 2027
Outlook Brightening
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Domestic Politics
Ruling Coalition In Guyana Unlikely To Make Concessions Prior To 2020
Long-Term Political Outlook
Sectarian Tensions And Regional Disputes Pose Risk To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BARBADOS AND GUYANA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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