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Bangladesh Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Bangladesh Country Risk Report Q3 2018

We believe that the repo rate cut by Bangladesh Bank on April 4 may help to alleviate the current stress in the banking system, but could lead to greater financial instability and cause the economy to overheat over the medium term.

The Bangladesh government's decision to lift the government job quota reserved for special groups will likely bode well for sentiment towards the ruling Awami League. Moreover, addressing the man-power shortage within the public sector could reduce processing delays, improving the ease of doing business in Bangladesh.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Interest Rate Cut To Raise Macroeconomic Risks
TABLE: BANGLADESH IN A TWIN DEFICIT
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PRODUCTS
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN SOURCES OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
BDT: Depreciatory Pressures To Persist
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Bangladesh Economy To 2027
Long-Term Potential Strong But Restricted
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
The Employment Quota Abolishment A Positive
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
TABLE: HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THOSE WITH A HIGHER SECONDARY QUALIFICATION AND ABOVE
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Instability To Persist
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: BANGLADESH – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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