Bangladesh Country Risk Report Q3 2018
We believe that the repo rate cut by Bangladesh Bank on April 4 may help to alleviate the current stress in the banking system, but could lead to greater financial instability and cause the economy to overheat over the medium term.
The Bangladesh government's decision to lift the government job quota reserved for special groups will likely bode well for sentiment towards the ruling Awami League. Moreover, addressing the man-power shortage within the public sector could reduce processing delays, improving the ease of doing business in Bangladesh.
Executive Summary Core Views Key Risks Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook Interest Rate Cut To Raise Macroeconomic Risks TABLE: BANGLADESH IN A TWIN DEFICIT GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PRODUCTS TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS Monetary Policy Framework TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTSStructural Fiscal Position TABLE: MAIN SOURCES OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS Currency Forecast BDT: Depreciatory Pressures To Persist TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Bangladesh Economy To 2027 Long-Term Potential Strong But Restricted TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic PoliticsThe Employment Quota Abolishment A Positive TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW TABLE: HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THOSE WITH A HIGHER SECONDARY QUALIFICATION AND ABOVE Long-Term Political Outlook Political Instability To PersistChapter 4: Operational Risk Operational Risk TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK Business Crime TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME Education Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: BANGLADESH – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS