Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We hold a cautious outlook towards the Bangladesh agriculture sector over the short term. Thelimited amount of arable land available for acreage expansion, as well as poor safety standards, willconstrain growth over our forecast period. Structural problems still plague the industry, in particular thelogistical challenges of food transportation within the country. Over the long term, we believe there is muchmore room for growth and improvement in sub-sectors such as grains and livestock. That said, as theagricultural sector in Bangladesh employs close to 70% of the working population but contributes only 20%of the country's GDP, there is an obvious need for improvement in efficiency of operations. GM food policyis also an interesting area to look out, as Bangladesh is undoubtedly one of the most open countries to GMfood cultivation in Asia.
Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 25.4% on the 2013/14 level to 1.6mn tonnes. The main driverbehind this growth will be an improvement in yields. Wheat cultivation remains a preferred option fornon-irrigated land given the low requirement for input use (fertiliser, insecticides and labour).
Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 16.5% growth to 151,000 tonnes. Production will fail to returnto the levels reached in the early 2000s. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable cash crops,such as cotton, we do not foresee sugar production to pick up significantly any time soon.
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