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Bahrain Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

Bahrain Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

BMI View: Economic growth will remain slow over 2017, weighing on Bahrain's consumer outlook. As a result we have revised down our private consumption growth rate over 2017, coming in at a modest 2.0%.

Nonetheless, beyond 2017, growth will improve moderately supported by a healthy outlook in the labour market as well as high-income households.

The Bahraini economy will continue to show resilience amid low oil prices, thanks to strong economic diversification by regional standards and financial support from wealthier Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) neighbours. We forecast a slowdown in Bahrain's real GDP growth to 2.6% in 2017, from an estimated 3.0% in 2016; nonetheless we remain optimistic on the country's growth outlook, with growth accelerating slightly to 2.9% in 2018. While this remains below the average of 4.0% experienced between 2010 and 2014, it is still a limited slowdown compared with the rest of the GCC.

We expect selected fiscal consolidation measures will weigh on public and private consumption in Bahrain over the coming quarters. We have revised down our real private consumption forecasts to 2.0% in 2017, from 2.8% previously. This is on the back of a reduction of government spending (although modest) will dampen private consumption and investment. Despite a rise in energy prices, it will not sufficiently improve Bahrain's weak fiscal position, particularly as production growth remains flat.


BMI Industry View
Consumer Outlook
SWOT
Consumer SWOT
Industry Forecast
Consumer Spending
Total Household Spending
Table: Total Household Spending (Bahrain 2015-2021)
Essential/Non Essential Spending
Table: Essential and Non Essential Spending (Bahrain 2015-2021)
Food, Drink And Tobacco
Table: Food and drinks (non-alcoholic, alcoholic and tobacco) spending (Bahrain 2015-2021)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Bahrain 2015-2021)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bahrain 2015-2021)
Personal Care & Effects
Table: Personal Care and Effects Spending (Bahrain 2015-2021)
Tourism Spending
Household Characteristics
Table: Household Income Data (Bahrain 2014-2021)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Labour Market Data (Bahrain 2014-2021)
Table: Total Population (Bahrain 2014-2021)
Market Overview
Retail Trends
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers
Electronics
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
Table: Selected Department Stores
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers And Online Marketplaces
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
Table: Selected Pharmacies And Drug Stores
Shopping Centres/Malls
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources

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