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Bahamas Country Risk Report 2019

Bahamas Country Risk Report 2019

Key View:

Real GDP growth in the Bahamas will accelerate to 2.4% in 2019, as the tourism sector is supported by a strong US economy and the ramping up of operations at the Baha Mar mega-resort.

Risks to our outlook are weighted to the downside, as the tourism-focused economy is exposed to a potential US economic downturn and hurricanes.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Tourism Will Remain Key Growth Driver In The Bahamas
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy Framework
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Revenue Growth To Support Fiscal Consolidation In Bahamas
Structural Fiscal Position
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Slow But Steady Growth Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Investor-Friendly Policies Set To Continue In Bahamas
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Bahamas Country Risk 2019ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Policy Continuity Likely Over Coming Decade
Demographic Outlook
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
Global Macro Outlook
Damage Control: Looser Policy Shift Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BAHAMAS – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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