Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Q4 2018
Our economic growth outlook on Azerbaijan remains subdued, as the country will remain overwhelmingly dependenton oil and gas revenues for GDP growth. Over 75% of Azerbaijan's exports rely on energy and 40% on economic output. Thecountry's petrochemicals producer SOCAR directly represented 10% of non-oil exports in 2017 and contributed to producing rawmaterial for downstream industries. With oil prices set to recover in the years ahead, we expect the government to gradually carryout its economic diversification and privatisation plans with petrochemicals likely to play a role in the push. In effect, thegovernment will not significantly reduce its footprint in the economy, which will hinder the development of the non-oil sector andthe ability to attract foreign direct investment.
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