Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Q4 2019
The outlook on Azeri gas is strongly bullish.The start-up of Shah Deniz II will raise dry gas and condensate productionover the coming quarters, with pipeline construction works progressing on schedule. In addition, Total has begun to award contractsfor Absheron and is targeting first gas in 2021. Renewed investment in the flagship ACG fields is helping to offset natural fielddecline, while a number of agreements for exploration and development works have been signed this quarter, signalling brighterlong-term prospects for production. The downstream sector will continue to underperform the upstream across our 10-yearforecast period. However, upgrade and expansion works will help somewhat to improve prospects for fuels production andexports.The demand outlook is also somewhat improved, as the economy continues its broader recovery. However, GDP growth willremain below its historical averages, while a slowdown in population growth will drag on consumption overall.
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