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Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Our outlook on Azeri oil is heavily bearish, with the major ACG fields falling deeper intodecline. Investments to stabilise output will help soften the fall; however, with a lack of new discoveriesbrought online this will be insufficient to reverse the overall trend. In contrast, we remain bullish on theprospects for Azeri gas, underpinned by large-scale new production from Shah Deniz. Prospects on thedownstream remain poor, with ageing and low complexity infrastructure, a limited market for growth andweak prospects for investment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts:

The country boasts substantial, prospective and underexplored acreage, in particular offshore in the SouthCaspian basin. SOCAR has also announced plans to restart onshore exploration, targeting ultra-deep oildeposits.

A shortage of drilling rigs continues to delimit drilling activity in the Caspian Sea. A spate of explorationand appraisal, development and production wells are set to be spud between 2015 and 2017; SOCARneeds to secure additional drilling rigs in the coming quarters if it is to avoid the emergence of a majorbottleneck in its upstream.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Indexation In European Gas Contracts
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Crude Oil Trade
Structural Trends
Table: Azerbaijan Crude Oil Assay
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Azerbaijan - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Licensing Regime
Fiscal Regime
Table: Azerbaijan PSC Main Fiscal Terms
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Refineries
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Refineries
Oil Pipelines
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Pipelines
Oil Terminals & Ports
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Trade Facilities
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Storage Facilities
Gas Storage Facilities
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Storage Facilities
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
BP Azerbaijan
Lukoil Azerbaijan
SOCAR
Statoil
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
Table: Central & Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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