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Azerbaijan Country Risk Report 20 2018

Azerbaijan Country Risk Report 20 2018

Azerbaijan's economic recovery following the recession in 2016 will be relatively sluggish in the coming years as oil prices are likely to remain below the peak in 2012 while the banking sector is still weak. That said, the economy will receive some support from the government's infrastructure investments.

The government's plan to significantly diversify the economy will not bear significant fruit due to a lack of structural reform momentum.

Thus, long-term growth will remain tepid relative to historic trends, averaging 4.3% over our forecast period to 2027.

Despite relatively low oil prices, public finances will remain stable on the back of sovereign wealth fund reserves of over 92.0% of GDP.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Upgrade Amid Higher Oil Prices
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Azerbaijani Economy To 2027
Relatively Weak Growth Up To 2027
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Aliyev In Good Position To Be Re-Elected As President
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Everything Hinges On Nagorno-Karabakh
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: AZERBAIJAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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