Austria Country Risk Report Q3 2018
The Austrian economy will outperform eurozone averages over the coming years, following a prolonged period of underperformance in previous years.
Growth will be broad based. The labour market is showing signs of improvement, which will support household consumption, stronger regional economic activity will boost exports, and fixed investment will rebound on the back of favourable financing conditions and a stronger demand picture.
The Austrian economy will continue to benefit from strong growth trajectories across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), to which it has strong trade and investment ties.
Austria's next government will likely be a right-wing coalition govern-ment between the centre-right People's Party (OVP) and the far-right Freedom Party (FPO). This will result in Austria acting as an impedi-ment to further eurozone integration and becoming somewhat more ideologically aligned with eurosceptic countries in eastern Europe such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
Executive Summary Core Views Key Risks Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook Passing The Peak GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS TABLE: 10 YEAR GDP FORECAST Outlook On External Position TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2015 TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2015 Monetary Policy ECB Plays Waiting GameStructural Fiscal Position TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES Currency Forecast EUR: Near-Term Strength To Give Way Gradually TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Austrian Economy To 2027 Further Reforms Needed, But Economy Well Placed To Outperform Eurozone TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic PoliticsEU Presidency Will Provide First Test Of Relations With Brussels TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW Long-Term Political Outlook Populism Gaining Ground Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: AUSTRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS