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Austria Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Austria Country Risk Report Q3 2018

The Austrian economy will outperform eurozone averages over the coming years, following a prolonged period of underperformance in previous years.

Growth will be broad based. The labour market is showing signs of improvement, which will support household consumption, stronger regional economic activity will boost exports, and fixed investment will rebound on the back of favourable financing conditions and a stronger demand picture.

The Austrian economy will continue to benefit from strong growth trajectories across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), to which it has strong trade and investment ties.

Austria's next government will likely be a right-wing coalition govern-ment between the centre-right People's Party (OVP) and the far-right Freedom Party (FPO). This will result in Austria acting as an impedi-ment to further eurozone integration and becoming somewhat more ideologically aligned with eurosceptic countries in eastern Europe such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Passing The Peak
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: 10 YEAR GDP FORECAST
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2015
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2015
Monetary Policy
ECB Plays Waiting Game
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Currency Forecast
EUR: Near-Term Strength To Give Way Gradually
TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Austrian Economy To 2027
Further Reforms Needed, But Economy Well Placed To Outperform Eurozone
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
EU Presidency Will Provide First Test Of Relations With Brussels
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Populism Gaining Ground
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: AUSTRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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