Austria Country Risk Report Q2 2019
While Austria's economy will slow moderately in the coming years, it will continue outperforming the wider eurozone.
Private consumption and gross fixed capital formation are likely to be the main drivers of growth, while the government is in a reasonable position to offset a larger slowdown with fiscal stimulus if necessary.
The Austrian economy will continue to benefit from solid growth trajectories across Central and Eastern Europe, to which it has strong trade and investment ties.
Austria's neutral status and the growing profile of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz will enable the country to play an increasingly important role on the EU and global stage in 2019 and 2020.Major Forecast Changes
Against the backdrop of deteriorating eurozone demand, we at Fitch Solutions have revised down our forecasts for real GDP to 1.8% in 2019, from 2.1% previ-ously. We see growth expanding by 1.7% in 2020.
Due to lower migration into the EU and support for the nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ), we have revised up Austria's Short-Term Political Risk index scores from 85.6 to 86.5 (out of 100).
Skilled labour shortages will continue to persist in the years ahead, which will continue to slow Austrian economic growth.
Wage growth will remain under pressure due to competition from cheaper labour coming in from Central and Eastern Europe.
Austria remains highly dependent on Germany for growth, to which over one-third of its exports go. An economic slowdown in Germany threatens to derail Austria's economic recovery.Austria Country Risk
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Major Forecast Changes
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook I
- Austrian Economy To Outperform Eurozone
- Economic Growth Outlook II
- Downside Risk Scenario: Could The Eurozone Enter Recession In 2019 Or 2020?
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Outlook On External Position
- TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
- TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2015
- TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2017
- Monetary Policy
- Neutral Fed To Underpin Euro Strength And ECB Rate Hike Delay
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
- TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
- Currency Forecast
- EUR: Gradual Strengthening Lies Ahead In 2019
- TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
- Austria Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
- The Austrian Economy To 2028
- Steady Growth, But A Eurozone Outperformer
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Kurz To Strength Austrian International Influence
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Populism Gaining Ground
- Global Macro Outlook
- Damage Control: Looser Policy Shift Ahead
- TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: AUSTRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS