Market Research Logo

Austria Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Austria Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

While Austria's economy will slow moderately in the coming years, it will continue outperforming the wider eurozone.

Private consumption and gross fixed capital formation are likely to be the main drivers of growth, while the government is in a reasonable position to offset a larger slowdown with fiscal stimulus if necessary.

The Austrian economy will continue to benefit from solid growth trajectories across Central and Eastern Europe, to which it has strong trade and investment ties.

Austria's neutral status and the growing profile of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz will enable the country to play an increasingly important role on the EU and global stage in 2019 and 2020.Major Forecast Changes

Against the backdrop of deteriorating eurozone demand, we at Fitch Solutions have revised down our forecasts for real GDP to 1.8% in 2019, from 2.1% previ-ously. We see growth expanding by 1.7% in 2020.

Due to lower migration into the EU and support for the nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ), we have revised up Austria's Short-Term Political Risk index scores from 85.6 to 86.5 (out of 100).

Key Risks

Skilled labour shortages will continue to persist in the years ahead, which will continue to slow Austrian economic growth.

Wage growth will remain under pressure due to competition from cheaper labour coming in from Central and Eastern Europe.

Austria remains highly dependent on Germany for growth, to which over one-third of its exports go. An economic slowdown in Germany threatens to derail Austria's economic recovery.Austria Country Risk


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook I
Austrian Economy To Outperform Eurozone
Economic Growth Outlook II
Downside Risk Scenario: Could The Eurozone Enter Recession In 2019 Or 2020?
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2015
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
Neutral Fed To Underpin Euro Strength And ECB Rate Hike Delay
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Currency Forecast
EUR: Gradual Strengthening Lies Ahead In 2019
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Austria Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Austrian Economy To 2028
Steady Growth, But A Eurozone Outperformer
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Kurz To Strength Austrian International Influence
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Populism Gaining Ground
Global Macro Outlook
Damage Control: Looser Policy Shift Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: AUSTRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report