BMI View: We have made some positive revisions to the mobile forecast in this quarter to account for thelatest data from Q117. We note that the market continues to perform largely in line with our forecasts. TPGTelecom's aggressive bid to become the fourth national mobile carrier in the country over the next threeyears will bode well for mobile sector competition. Furthermore, we note that MTR cuts effective fromJanuary 2016 have impacted ARPUs, with operators clearly focusing on data services to recoup lostrevenues. This is apparent due to the respective shutdown of their 2G networks to gain capacity, withTelstra leading in late-2016 before being joined by its rivals in 2017. The fixed market is dominated by theNational Broadband Network, which passed 4mn premises in February 2017. Greater flexibility in terms oftechnology, with the addition of satellite and cable and the move towards vectoring and fibre to the nodehas helped uptake. On the content side, all operators are looking to add premium services but they facestrong competition from independent providers such as Netflix.
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We estimate the mobile market ended Q1 2017 with 32.8mn subscriptions. Telstra shut down its 2Gnetwork in December 2016, with Optus due to follow suit in April 2017 and VHA the followingSeptember.