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Australia Metals Report 2015

BMI View: Australia will see subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals as aweakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additionalglobal monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measureswill be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

We expect a slowdown in the metals industry in Australia on the back of slowing demand in China. Weakdemand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermineAustralia's steel industry in 2015 and beyond. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for manyyears. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previouslyknown as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmesaimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand anddeclining steel prices.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Australia 2011-2019)
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Australia 2011-2019)
Nickel: Weak Prices To Restrain Output Growth
Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Australia 2011-2019)
Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory
Table: Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance (Australia 2011-2019)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
Table: Australia - Political Summary
Commodities Forecast
Industrial Metals: Remaining Below-Consensus
Chinese Demand To Remain Weak Despite Stimulus
Tightening Market Balance To Support Price Recovery
Steel: Oversupply To Subdue Prices Until 2017
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Market Balance: Surplus To Persist Until 2017
Table: Steel Forecasts (2015-2019)
Competitive Landscape
Australia To Remain World Leader for Investment
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Rio Tinto - Q4 2015
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - BHP Billiton - Q3 2015
Latest Financial Results
Table: BHP Billiton - Supply Chain Analysis
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data
Methodology
Cross Checks

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