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Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q4 2017

Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q4 2017

BMI View:

While growth will be positive in the rail and road freight sectors in 2017, air will experience afairly large contraction, although this mode will return to positive growth in 2018. Our negative forecastfor Q117 reaffirms our broadly negative view of the Australian economy. This is partially due to poorweather having affected exports, together with continuing weakness in residential construction activity andpoor external demand due to the slowdown in China. These factors will likely keep Australia's growthsubdued over the coming quarters.

Key Updates And Forecasts

Australia's Q117 real GDP growth weakened significantly to 1.1% q-o-q in seasonally adjustedannualised (SAA) terms, from 4.5% in the previous quarter. While part of the slowdown can be attributedto the disruption in economic activity due to bad weather (prior to Tropical Cyclone Debbie hitting thecountry from March 28 to early April), which has also adversely affected freight operations, we aremaintaining our negative outlook on the country's economic performance over the coming quarters. In yo-y terms, real GDP growth slowed to 1.7% y-o-y in Q117 from 2.4% in the previous quarter and we aremaintaining our real GDP growth forecasts at 2.1% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018 (versus 2.5% in 2016). Webelieve that the combination of weakness in residential construction activity and poor external demanddue to the slowdown in China will keep overall growth subdued, despite support from public investment.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2014-2021)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2014-2021)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2009-2016 (USDmn)
Table: Main Export Partners, 2009-2016 (USDmn)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2014-2021)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2014-2021)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2014-2021)
Shipping Forecast
Table: Major Ports Data (Australia 2014-2021)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
Pacific National
Qantas Freight
Toll Group
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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