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Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016

BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2013
2020)
SWOT
Freight Transport and Shipping SWOT
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2013
2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2013
2020)
Table: Main Import Partners (2006
2013)
Table: Main Export Partners (2006
2013)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2013
2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2013
2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2013
2020)
Shipping Forecast
Table: Major Ports Data (Australia 2013
2020)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
Pacific National
Qantas Freight
Toll Group
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990
2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology
Sources

Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Over the short term, we do not expect to see overly impressive y-o-y gains across the freightmodes in Australia, but growth will remain in the positive over the medium-term forecast period. Theoutperforming mode will be rail freight, which is set to register annual growth of 4.9% in 2016, while airfreight will trail in third place out of three with y-o-y growth of just 0.7%. Sandwiched in between will beroad freight, which is poised to see y-o-y growth of 3.1%. We expect Australia's liquefied natural gas (LNG)and agricultural exports to grow strongly over the coming years, but they are unlikely to offset thesignificant drag from declining export earnings from the iron ore and coal markets.

Latest Updates And Forecasts

Australia's exports and imports are projected to grow by 3.0% in 2016, but there will be a mixed bagwhen taken individually, with the former set to increase by 6.0% y-o-y, while imports will see a slightcontraction of 0.5%.

Over the medium term forecast period, road freight will overtake rail as the outperforming mode in termsof tonnage throughput, averaging 3.1% y-o-y growth between 2016 and 2020.

Australia will remain a key agricultural powerhouse due to several factors. Firstly, there is a large andincreasing surplus of commodities such as grains, beef, dairy and sugar, which are in high demand,boosting air freight volumes. Secondly, Steady (Developed Asia) or growing (Emerging Asia, MiddleEast) import demand for bulk commodities will also help Australian exports grow. Lastly, Australia hassigned a number of Free Trade Agreements with key agricultural importers (Japan, South Korea andChina) over recent years.

Road freight is once more set to remain the most dominant freight mode in Australia for the foreseeablefuture, accounting for almost 70% of total freight transport handled in 2016.


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