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Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Over the course of 2016 we expect to see road freight once more outperform the other twomodes in Australia with the former coming in at 3.10% y-o-y growth, and rail freight and air freight areforecast to grow by 2.77% and 0.70% respectively. The slight y-o-y gains across all of the modes comparedto 2015 are in line with our view that the overall trade picture is set to improve over the next 12 monthswith real trade growth pencilled in to increase by 3.00% in 2016. Through to the end of our forecast periodin 2019, we expect growth to be steady, if uninspiring. We expect the Australian dollar to continue to facefundamental downside pressure, and this will allow the decline in imports needed to improve the country'sexternal indebtedness over the coming years.

The Australian economy continued to slow in Q1 2015, and we maintain our 2015 real GDP growthestimate of 2.3% (versus 2.7% in 2014). The country's worsening terms of trade and unwinding investmentboom continue to act as major headwinds to growth going into 2016, thus tempering the rate of growth ofthe freight modes in Australia over the short term. That said, the lack of an explicit easing bias by theReserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and potential risks to the property market caused by low interest ratessuggest to us that further cuts by the central bank are unlikely, and we expect the RBA to keep its cash ratesteady at 2.00% over the course of 2015 and 2016.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
Table: Main Export Partners (2006-2013)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Aurizon (formerly QR National)
Pacific National
Qantas Freight
Toll Group
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Table: Proposed Savings To Face Political Hurdles
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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