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Armenia Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Armenia Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

The successful transition of government in Armenia in December 2018 is likely to presage an improving political environment in the country over the coming years.

Among other factors, the new government's sizeable majority and a decreasing risk of it being overthrown in the years ahead has led us to significantly upwardly revise our Short-Term Political Risk Index score for Armenia.

While the change in government is likely to see progress on reforms, structural challenges will persist over the long term.

Real GDP growth in Armenia over the coming years will remain robust and above historical averages.

Following the successful transition of government in Armenia in December 2018, this is likely to presage several political and economic reforms, boosting investment and consumption.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Armenian Economy To 2028
Convergence To Stall
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Government Transition To Herald Reforms In Armenia
Long-Term Political Outlook
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict To Stay At Centre Stage
Armenia Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsGlobal Macro Outlook
Downside Risks To Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ARMENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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