Armenia Country Risk Report Q2 2019
The successful transition of government in Armenia in December 2018 is likely to presage an improving political environment in the country over the coming years.
Among other factors, the new government's sizeable majority and a decreasing risk of it being overthrown in the years ahead has led us to significantly upwardly revise our Short-Term Political Risk Index score for Armenia.
While the change in government is likely to see progress on reforms, structural challenges will persist over the long term.
Real GDP growth in Armenia over the coming years will remain robust and above historical averages.
Following the successful transition of government in Armenia in December 2018, this is likely to presage several political and economic reforms, boosting investment and consumption.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- 10-Year Forecast
- The Armenian Economy To 2028
- Convergence To Stall
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Government Transition To Herald Reforms In Armenia
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict To Stay At Centre Stage
- Armenia Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsGlobal Macro Outlook
- Downside Risks To Global Growth
- TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: ARMENIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS