We had made minor forecast adjustments to account for the latest YE2016 data in the Q317 quarterly report update. The market performs in line with our estimations as the mobile segment nears saturation with almost 140% penetration and organic subscriber growth cooling off. Nevertheless, believe that the regulator's new investor and competition friendly policies will deliver further innovation and technological uptake in the market. The regulator looks to auction more spectrums and attract new wireless and wireline carriers in the coming quarters. As the mobile subscription growth has stalled, the ability for operators to embrace converged services could not come at a better time. This will justify investment in 3G/ 4G infrastructure and prevent the wireline segment from stagnating. Convergence offers new revenue diversification opportunities, but is also ARPU-dilutive; operators must become more creative at the service level.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
The mobile market is approaching saturation, with the market having gained only 65,000 subscribers. The market lost 1.265mn subscribers in Q116 and we attribute the losses to a significant number of inactive SIMs in the market. Our forecast envisions only modest organic subscriber growth over the course of our forecast period as we see total mobile subscribers reaching 63.954mn by end-2021, up from 63.46mn at end of 2017.