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Argentina Shipping Report Q1 2016

Argentina Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Our outlook for the Argentinian port sector is continuing to look better than it has been forsome time. In 2016, we forecast growth, albeit modestly, both in tonnage and throughput volumes at severalof the country's maritime facilities. Weaker private consumption will continue to reduce imports in the nextyear, while a weaker exchange rate will slightly improve the competitiveness of exports, which will have apositive outcome for port volumes. Government intervention, industrial unrest and bureaucraticrequirements will continue to disrupt the industry, while easing inflationary pressure supporting growth inhousehold incomes, declining real imports and a boost in soy export volumes will strengthen net exportnumbers. However, we sill forecast a moderate expansion due to structural issues still affecting thecountry.

Following years of successive contractions in tonnage and throughput volumes at several of the country'smaritime facilities, we forecast an increase at all ports in 2016, with the Port of Buenos Aires increasing itsnumbers all the way until the end of the forecast period. This comes as growth rates in trade will improveover the next five years, with the trade balance increasing each year until the end of our forecast period in2020 at USD27bn. A more moderate inflation will continue to drive positive GDP growth in Argentina overthe medium term, and we forecast GDP growth to increase from 2.5% in 2016 to 5.5% by the end of ourforecast period (average growth rate of 3.7% y-o-y). The accelerated growth will be due to fixed capitalformation returning to growth on the back of investor optimism toward a new government.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Buenos Aires Throughput
Port Of Bahía Blanca Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Top Import Sources, 2006-2013
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013
Market Overview
Argentina Container Shipping Market Overview
Company Profile
Ultrapetrol
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Argentina 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025)

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