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Argentina Retail Report Q1 2016

Argentina Retail Report Q1 2016

BMI View: The election of Marcelo Macri as the new president of Argentina will have a number of positiveimpacts for the country's economy. We anticipate a number of reforms to improve business environment andincrease Argentina's appeal for foreign retailers. While the country's households will suffer from highinflation and weak income growth in the medium term, Argentina's retail sector will accelerate after 2019.

The Argentine economy has experienced significant turbulence over the past five years. Economic growth,which peaked at 9.5% in 2010, fell to 0.5% in 2014 and is expected to only achieve 0.7% in 2015.

Consequently, the retail sector faces considerable challenges going forward owing to high inflation and abusiness environment that remains unwelcoming to foreign firms. Many are therefore awaiting positivechanges following the election of Marcelo Macri, the country's new president following narrow victory inNovember. We currently forecast GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2016 and pick up steam later into the forecastperiod.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Argentina 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink And Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Argentina 2012-2019)
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Argentina 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Argentina 2012-2019)
Personal Care And Effects
Table: Personal Care Spending (Argentina 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Argentina 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Argentina 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Argentina 2012-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
Argentina Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Mass Grocery Retail
Fashion
OTC Pharmaceuticals
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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