Argentina Information Technology Report Q4 2015
BMI View: The forecast for the Argentine IT market in 2015 has been raised slightly as a result of ourCountry Risk team's view for a less hostile economic environment, including slower peso depreciationagainst the US dollar, which will mean less pressure on PC sales than under our previous forecast. We stillexpect a marked improvement from 2014 when the economic crisis had a major disruptive impact on theArgentine IT market, with the devaluation of the peso, import restrictions, high inflation, capital controls,shortage of credit and government debt default all contributing to a recession and sharp contraction of theIT market in US dollar terms. Over the medium term, we expect the market to move to a higher growthtrajectory from 2016/2017 as confidence returns and deferred purchases from 2014-2015 are unlocked.
Meanwhile, the impact of economic crisis was not wholly negative, with devaluation helping to make ITexports abroad more competitive and boosting industry development. There are also positive fundamentalsfor medium-term growth including increases in PC penetration, second device ownership, enterprisesoftware penetration and cloud computing are examples of sectors that have growth opportunities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: ARS18.2bn in 2014 to ARS20.0bn in 2015, +9.9% in local currency. Pesodepreciation a drag on market growth, but under our revised forecast we now expect a contraction of just1.4% in US dollar terms and growth in overall PC volumes in 2015.
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