Argentina Country Risk Report Q1 2020


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Argentina Country Risk Report Q1 2020

We at Fitch Solutions forecast the Argentine economy will remain in recession through 2020, as high inflation erodes consumption and a lack of access to capital markets halts undermines commercial activity and investment.

Given ideological divisions within the Peronist movement and the opposition's legislative power, Fernández is likely to pursue a more moderate policy direction than his association with former president and Vice President-Elect Cristina Fernández de Kirchner suggests. Nonetheless, policy uncertainty will weigh on economic activity, particular amid anticipated debt renegotiations.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Investor Uncertainty Will Extend Recession In Argentina
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Argentina Likely To Maintain Capital Controls Over Near Term
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS (2018)
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS (2018)
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fernández To Maintain Fiscal Deficits In Argentina
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Inflation In Argentina Will Remain Among The World's Highest
Currency Forecast
ARS: Depreciation To Continue Even Amid Capital Controls
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Argentine Economy To 2028
Long-Term Growth Outlook Uncertain Amid Policy Risks
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics I
Fernández Wins But Set To Face Significant Opposition In Argentina
Domestic Politics II
Argentina Q&A: Possibilities Under A Return To Peronism
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ARGENTINA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook