Argentina Country Risk Report Q1 2020
We at Fitch Solutions forecast the Argentine economy will remain in recession through 2020, as high inflation erodes consumption and a lack of access to capital markets halts undermines commercial activity and investment.
Given ideological divisions within the Peronist movement and the opposition's legislative power, Fernández is likely to pursue a more moderate policy direction than his association with former president and Vice President-Elect Cristina Fernández de Kirchner suggests. Nonetheless, policy uncertainty will weigh on economic activity, particular amid anticipated debt renegotiations.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- SWOT
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Investor Uncertainty Will Extend Recession In Argentina
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- External Trade And Investment Outlook
- Argentina Likely To Maintain Capital Controls Over Near Term
- Outlook On External Position
- TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
- TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
- TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS (2018)
- TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS (2018)
- Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
- Fernández To Maintain Fiscal Deficits In Argentina
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy
- Inflation In Argentina Will Remain Among The World's Highest
- Currency Forecast
- ARS: Depreciation To Continue Even Amid Capital Controls
- TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
- THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
- The Argentine Economy To 2028
- Long-Term Growth Outlook Uncertain Amid Policy Risks
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics I
- Fernández Wins But Set To Face Significant Opposition In Argentina
- Domestic Politics II
- Argentina Q&A: Possibilities Under A Return To Peronism
- Operational Risk
- TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
- Economic Openness
- TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
- TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
- TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
- TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
- Utilities Network
- TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
- TABLE: FUEL RISKS
- TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
- TABLE: WATER RISKS
- Global Macro Outlook
- Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: ARGENTINA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS