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Argentina Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We believe that, with export quotas for corn and wheat having been removed by the new government, soybeans will lose acreage to both crops and yields will decrease as farmers swap soybeans for wheat in early plantings. What is more, soybean hoarding will decrease due to a lower export tax and the peso devaluation. We hold a bearish view on soybean production in Argentina through to the end of our newly extended forecast period in 2019/20. Meanwhile, we expect moderate output growth for corn over our forecast period, as we expect corn prices to increase from current levels, which will incentivise production. Over the same period, we are also predicting wheat production to trend higher, although this will be largely due to base effects.

Key Forecasts

Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 23.3% to 2.65mn tonnes. The sharp decline in 2013/14 was due to a dry summer followed by severe frosts that impacted key sugar-growing regions and, as a result, the sector will enjoy growth coming from a low base.

Pork production growth to 2019/20: 20.7% to 573,300 tonnes. Over the long term, government efforts to reduce the proportion of beef in the local diet, in order to free up more for export, will lead to an increase in pork production.

Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 3.9% to 62.3mn tonnes. Farmers have been straining their fields in recent years by continually planting soybeans, which will add to the incentive to turn to other crops. With export taxes on corn and wheat now significantly reduced by the new government, this will amplify substitution away from soybeans.

Soybean consumption growth to 2019/20: 13.1% to 51.2mn tonnes. A key driver will be export demand for soybean oil (specifically from China) and soybean meal, which is an important livestock feed. The conversion from raw soybean to finished processed products is contributing to our consumption outlook.

Corn production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20:6.6% to 28.8mn tonnes. We see a more favourable trade outlook for corn as export taxes and restrictions are reduced following the election of Mauricio Macri as Argentina's new president.

2016 real GDP growth: -1.2% (down from 0.7% in 2015e).

2016 consumer price inflation: 24.0% average (up from 17.0% in 2015).


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
Table: Sugar - Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Argentina - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Soybean Outlook
Table: Soybean - Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Argentina - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Grains Outlook
Table: Argentina Grains - Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Canned Food Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019)
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019)
Regional Overview
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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