BMI View: The mobile market growth deceleration continues in Angola, amid macroeconomic weaknessand a lack of investment in rural areas. The mobile market is currently a duopoly between Unitel andMovicel. However, government could break this dominance if it proceeds with plans to liberalise thetelecoms sector and offer universal licences to the country's fixed and mobile service providers. AngolaTelecom has already expressed interest in rolling out mobile services to sustain growth and improve itscapacity to offer multiplay services. Nonetheless, and regardless of the fact we believe the macroeconomicsituation will gradually recover, we believe mobile growth will remain limited until the end of this decade.
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In 2016, Angola's mobile market grew by just 0.7% to reach 14.4510mn subscriptions. We predict thatthe mobile customer base will increase to just 14.7mn in 2017 and will just about reach 15mn by2021. This would translate to a penetration rate of 50.22%.
By 2021, we expect the number of 3G and 4G subscriptions in Angola to reach 10.068mn, equivalentto around 66.5% of the total mobile subscriber base. Our 3G/4G subscriptions growth outlookaccounts for stronger take-up, owing to the availability of low-cost devices and declining tariffs.
Angola's broadband subscriber base is expected to grow by around 26% in 2017, reaching 828,000.This translates to a penetration rate of 3.11%. By the end of our forecast in 2021, we anticipate a marketof around 1.31mn broadband subscribers, equivalent to a penetration rate of 4.36%.