BMI View: Angola's oil production will be decline in 2017 due to OPEC compliance, growing strongly in2018 with a host of large projects ramping up. Post-2018, oil production will fall off due to a steep declinerates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside, howeverthe poor relationship between Sonangol and the IOCs puts these projects in jeopardy. Gas production willremain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand, but will benefit from the ALNG comingback online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed one of the twoplanned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress and the poor financial position of Sonangol.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Over the first half of the year Angola has produced below its allocated OPEC quota of 1.673mn barrelsper day (b/d). So far crude output has averaged 1.658mn b/d suggesting that Angolan production isstruggling. Poor year-to-date performance and our assumption of strong compliance for the remainder ofthe OPEC agreement has led us to downgrade Angola's crude production for 2017 and 2018. We nowexpect total oil production to average 1.695mn b/d in 2017, a fall from 2016's level of 1.743mn b/d.