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Angola Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Angola Country Risk Report Q4 2018

New President João Lourenço's recent ministerial reshuffles and promised economic policy shifts signal an increased commitment by the new administration to reforming Angola's business environment. While this suggests a potential for much stronger long-term growth, we do see downside risks, given the nascent stage of the implementation of the reforms and the continued potential for pushback from party elites.

A rise in oil exports will support stronger real GDP growth in Angola over 2018 and 2019. While a slowdown in oil production will likely temper growth thereafter, the risks are skewed to the upside given prospects for business-friendly reform.

Angola's currency regime is likely to remain a crawling peg over the coming quarters as the central bank looks to restore liquidity in foreign exchange markets. Although the kwanza's official exchange rate remains stronger than the commonly used parallel rate, we believe increasing export revenues will see the pace of devaluation gradually slow.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Oil Exports And Investment Driving Angola's Economic Recovery
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Angola's External Position Sustainable Despite Widening Current Account Deficits
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Rising Inflation To Come As Angolan Kwanza Weakens Further
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Higher Oil Prices And Reforms Supporting Angola's Fiscal Sustainability
Angola Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsStructural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2016)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
Angolan Kwanza Depreciations To Become More Subdued
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Angolan Economy To 2027
Lack Of Diversification Weighing On Growth Prospects
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Positive Outlook Dependent On Reforms And Government Cohesion
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EMs Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ANGOLA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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