Angola Country Risk Report Q2 2020

Angola Country Risk Report Q2 2020

Muted international oil prices and an overall downtrend in domestic oil production will keep Angola in a fifth consecutive year of recession in 2020. While efforts at business-friendly reforms and external financing provide upside potential for investment inflows and economic activity, Angola's heavy commodity depend-ence will continue to stymie real GDP growth over the short term.

President João Lourenço's series of ministerial reshuffles and promised economic policy shifts signal an increased commitment by the new administration to reforming Angola's business environment and promoting diversification beyond the oil sector. That said, while this suggests potential for much stronger long-term economic growth, oil will remain the dominant sector over the next decade.

Angolan policymakers are likely to maintain a steady pace of currency depreciation over the coming quarters as the central bank looks to restore liquidity in foreign exchange markets. While the Banco Nacional de Angola will aim to contain inflationary pressures that could weigh on the economy's muted growth prospects, declining oil exports and foreign currency reserves will force policymakers to continue the kwanza's controlled depreciation over the coming quarters.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Angola's Recession Persisting Over The Short Term
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Angolan Current Account Balance Shifting From Surplus To Deficit Over The Short Term
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Angolan Central Bank To Hold Rates Over 2020
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
AOA: Angolan Kwanza's Depreciation To Be More Moderate Over 2020
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Angola Country Risk Q2 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
The Angolan Economy To 2029
Lack Of Diversification Weighing On Growth Prospects
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Angola To Maintain Reform Agenda Momentum In 2020
Long-Term Political Outlook
Reforms Continuing, But Economic Underperformance Threatens Stability
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Conflict Risk
TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
Transport Network
TABLE: ROAD RISKS
TABLE: RAIL RISKS
TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ANGOLA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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