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Angola Country Risk Report 20 2018

Angola Country Risk Report 20 2018

New President João Lourenço’s ministerial reshuffles and promised economic policy shifts signal an increased commitment by the new administration to reform Angola’s business environment. While this suggests potential for much stronger long-term growth, we do see downside risks given the nascent stage of the implementation of the reforms and the continued potential for pushback from party elites.

A rise in oil exports will support stronger real GDP growth in Angola over 2018 and 2019. While a slowdown in oil production will likely temper growth thereafter, the risks are skewed to the upside given prospects for business-friendly reform.

Angola’s currency regime is likely to remain a crawling peg over the coming months as the central bank looks to restore liquidity in foreign exchange markets. Although this is stronger than the parallel rate, we believe increasing export revenues will guard against any need for a more substantial pace of devaluation.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Reforms Presenting Upside Potential Amid Declining Oil Output
TABLE: LONG-TERM GROWTH SCENARIOS
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Reforms Needed To Prevent Deteriorating External Position
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Tightening To Come Amid Inflationary Pressures Building
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Oil Providing Short-Term Relief To Fiscal Position
TABLE: ANGOLA 2018 FISCAL FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2016)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Long-Term Political Outlook
Positive Outlook Dependent On Reforms And Government Cohesion
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO RISK IN ANGOLA
Education
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: ANGOLA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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