Angola will experience marginal improvement to its consumer outlook over 2017 on the back ofa recovery in economic growth. Rising inflationary pressures and unfavourable labour market conditions,however, continue to dampen consumer purchasing power, weighing on prospects for robust spending overour five-year outlook.
Real GDP growth will rise significantly in 2017, to 2.0%, up from only 0.3% in 2016, as the fall in the priceof oil took a heavy toll on the hydrocarbon-dependent economy. While we see a further rise to 4.1% in2018, we expect an abrupt fall back to 2.4% in 2019. In the longer term, the economy's dependence on oil,which accounts for a very large proportion of exports and government revenue, will mean that Angolaremains exposed to external shocks. However, we do see some scope for economic diversification, inparticular in agriculture, which would stabilise the economy in the long term and potentially makeeconomic growth more broad-based.