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Aluminium Metals Report Q2 2016

BMI Industry View
BMI View
Table: Global
Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Price Forecast
Global Aluminium: Slow Recovery To Balanced Market
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecasts
Table: Global
Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade
Global Aluminium: ChinaDriven Oversupply To Persist
Table: Global
Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Supply: China Oversupply To Force More Cuts Abroad
Table: Primary Aluminium Production Forecasts
Demand: China Demand Growth Will Slow Significantly
Trade: China Exports To Rise Further
Table: Primary Aluminium Consumption Forecasts
Mine Supply: Bauxite
Bauxite: New Projects To Propel Growth
Table: Select Countries
Bauxite Production Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Largest Listed Aluminium Producers by Market Capitalisation, 2014
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy Alcoa Q2 2016
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
Table: Alcoa
Key Financial Data
Company Details
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) Q2 2016
Company Overview
Latest Financial Results
Table: Chalco
Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy RUSAL Q2 2016
Latest Results
Table: UC RUSAL
Key Financial Data
National Aluminium Company (NALCO)
Table: NALCO
Top Suppliers
Table: NALCO
Key Financial Data
Emirates Global Aluminium
Data Appendix
Appendix
Table: Global
Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Table: Primary Aluminium Production Forecasts
Table: Primary Aluminium Consumption Forecasts

Aluminium Metals Report Q2 2016

BMI view: We will maintain our aluminium price forecast for 2016 at USD1,575/tonne. Although priceswill bottom in H116, production will outstrip consumption until 2018 and anchor prices. In particular,cheap Chinese exports will keep the market well supplied.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast

We expect prices to average USD1,575/tonne in 2016 and USD1,600/tonne in 2017, climbing to onlyUSD1,750/tonne by the end of our forecast period in 2020. As of February, consensus has moved lower,more or less aligned with ours over the next few years.

Production

Global aluminium production growth will slow due to persistently low prices. We forecast global outputto grow by 3.9% in 2016 compared to 8.5% in 2015.

China will remain the driving force behind global aluminium production, with output growth continuingto outstrip growth in the rest of the world. China's output growth will slow from 16.0% to 8.0% in 2016due to gradual scaling back of capacity.

Production in Europe and the US will be global weak spots as producers continue to make capacity cutsin response to low prices. Weak smelter margins have been exacerbated by the collapse in LMEpremiums over 2015 and we expect premiums to remain depressed.

Due to weak margins in primary aluminium smelting, more firms could follow Alcoa's lead and pivottowards higher-value products such as for the autos and aerospace industries.


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