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Algeria Autos Report Q4 2015

Algeria Autos Report Q4 2015

The near-term outlook for Algerian new vehicle sales has become even more negative over the past quarter,partly as a result of new vehicle import regulations introduced in April 2015 that have reduced the amountof imported vehicles that are passed as suitable for sale on Algerian roads by the local authorities. Thesenew import regulations have also reportedly had the by-product of local banks being told by the governmentnot to accept non-compliant vehicles as suitable for delivery to local dealerships, which has led to asituation where there could be as many as 40,000 vehicles currently impounded in Algerian ports waitingfor clearance, according to local media reports.

BMI was already forecasting an 8% decline in new vehicle sales for 2015. However, given recent poormonthly sales data and uncertainty over these new import regulations and when the effective blockade ofauto imports will be lifted, we are now revising this down to a 20% decline, with a combination of fallingoil prices, a slowing economy and rising inflation all likely to continue weighing on demand for newpassenger cars and commercial vehicles over the remainder of 2015.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2019)
Sales
Production
Trade
Passenger Vehicles
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2019)
Table: Algeria - Car Sales By Brand 2014
Commercial Vehicles
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts - Brent
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Sub-Saharan Africa - Risk/Reward Index
Outperformers Are Production Hubs
Policy Not Always Positive
Weak Currency A Barrier To Improvement
Company Profile
Volvo
Peugeot
Renault Algérie
Hyundai Motor
Regional Overview
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Autos Production Investment
Kenya Builds On Hub Advantage
Slowly But Surely For Cameroon
Nigerian Policy Keeps Investment Coming In
Global Industry Overview
1. Currency Weakness Hurting African Growth
2. Increasing Local Content In Trouble Spots
3. SUVs Rolling On
4. Tech/Autos Lines Are Blurring
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Algeria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Algeria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Algeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Algeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Algeria 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Morocco 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Morocco 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Morocco 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Morocco 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Morocco 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators

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